U.S. Gains Influence in Asia While China's Rating Skids: Think Tank

The US has seen a reversal of fortunes since last year, when China closed the gap on American influence in Asia, according to a new report by the Lowy Institute, Francesca Regalado reported recently for Nikkei Asia.

Photo Insert: This year marks the first gain for the US since the Australian think tank began publishing its annual Asia Power Index in 2018.

This year marks the first gain for the US since the Australian think tank began publishing its annual Asia Power Index in 2018. Washington bucked the downtrend seen in most of the 26 ranked countries.

The annual index awards points for military capability and defense networks, economic, diplomatic, and cultural influence, resilience, and future resources.

The US scored 82.2 points, up from 81.6 in 2020. Aside from the US, Brunei, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh were the only countries to gain points this year. China received 74.6 points, its score falling for the first time since 2018, "with no clear path to undisputed primacy in the Indo-Pacific," the report says.

It surpassed the US only in economic capability and relationships, but it also gained ground in terms of military capability and resilience.

The region faces a "significant risk of war" as military spending continues to rise, with the Lowy Institute forecasting a combined defense budget of $1.2 trillion in 2030 for the Quad countries -- Australia, India, Japan, and the US. China and its allies, meanwhile, are projected to spend $744 billion on their militaries in 2030.

Losing military primacy and economic relevance should concern Washington, according to the report. Domestic opposition continues to prevent a U.S. return to the CPTPP trade pact, while China has applied for membership.

While the Chinese economy is still expected to outpace the US, its rate of growth is uncertain because of structural weaknesses such as its aging population and high debt burden.

"There is nothing inevitable about China's rise in the world. It appears very unlikely China will ever be as dominant as the United States once was," the report concludes.

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