U.S. Heading Into Recession in 2026: Moody’s Economist

Moody’s economist Mark Zandi still sees a high chance that the US is headed for a recession, describing the odds of a downturn in the next 12 months as “uncomfortably high,” Samuel O’Brient reported for Business Insider.

The US economy is now being described as being on the “precipice of recession.”

Zandi has been warning of recession risks in recent weeks. In August, he described the US economy as being on the “precipice of recession.” He reiterated the warning shortly after, saying the economy is “at the edge of a cliff.”

His latest prediction is his starkest yet. Over the weekend, Zandi shared his updated outlook in a series of X posts, citing Moody’s Analytics data.

He said the probability of a US recession within 12 months now stands at 48%. “It’s less than 50%, but historically, the probability has never gotten this high and a recession has not ensued,” he wrote.

Zandi also pointed to slumping residential building permits — a key indicator in recession forecasting — as evidence of weakening momentum.