U.S. Recession Risks Are Fading But Political Tensions Threaten Economy

According to a survey released by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE), just a quarter of business economists and analysts anticipate a US recession this year.

Despite concerns over inflation, the economy has shown resilience, with growth and employment remaining strong despite higher borrowing costs.

Any potential downturn would likely stem from external shocks, such as a conflict involving China, rather than domestic economic factors like higher interest rates, as reported by Paul Wiseman for Reuters.

While respondents expect year-over-year inflation to exceed the Federal Reserve’s 2% target through 2024, they are more optimistic about the domestic economy's outlook compared to a year ago.

Despite concerns over inflation, the economy has shown resilience, with growth and employment remaining strong despite higher borrowing costs.

The survey suggests a shift in sentiment, with hopes that the Fed can achieve a "soft landing," curbing inflation without inducing a recession. Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, noted increased optimism among panelists regarding the domestic economy's future.

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