U.S. Recession To Start Later This Year: Business Economists

A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a US recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates, Christopher Rugaber reported for the Associated Press (AP).

Photo Insert: The delay in the economists’ expectations of when a downturn will begin follows a series of government reports that have pointed to a still-robust economy even after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times.

Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) envision a recession sometime this year, the same proportion who said so in the NABE’s survey in December.

But only 25%r think a recession will have begun by the end of March, only half the proportion who had thought so in December. The findings, reflecting a survey of economists from businesses, trade associations and academia, were released Monday.

A third of the economists who responded to the survey now expect a recession to begin in the April-June quarter. One-fifth think it will start in the July-September quarter.

The delay in the economists’ expectations of when a downturn will begin follows a series of government reports that have pointed to a still-robust economy even after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times in a strenuous effort to slow growth and curb high inflation.

In January, employers added more than a half-million jobs, and the unemployment rate reached 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.

Sales at retail stores and restaurants jumped 3% in January, the sharpest monthly gain in nearly two years. That suggested that consumers as a whole, who drive most of the economy’s growth, still feel financially healthy and willing to spend.

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