U.S. Retailers Project Record Back-to-School Spending

Retailers are forecasting record spending for the 2026 back-to-school season, even as consumers hunt for bargains and spread out their purchases to manage household budgets.

Families are shopping for school supplies as US retailers forecast record back-to-school spending this year.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects total back-to-school and back-to-college spending to reach a record $146.8 billion, surpassing combined spending for Mother's Day, Father's Day, Easter, and the Super Bowl, Janet H. Cho reported for Barron's Daily.

Families with children in kindergarten through 12th grade are expected to spend a record $43.3 billion, while spending on college students is projected to reach $103.5 billion, the highest level since at least 2003.

According to the NRF survey, 50% of shoppers plan to purchase only essential school supplies before classes begin and replenish items as needed.

Others said they are cutting spending in other areas (37%), using buy-now, pay-later financing (20%), or working overtime (17%) to cover back-to-school expenses.

Average spending per K-12 student is expected to rise to $863.86, up from $858.07 in 2025. Meanwhile, average spending for college students is projected to reach a record $1,437.79, compared with $1,325.85 last year.

Twenty states are offering temporary sales tax holidays for school-related purchases.

However, the nonprofit Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) said such programs provide limited relief for lower-income families while reducing state and local government revenues by nearly $600 million.