U.S. Tariff Revenue at Risk in SC Ruling Tops $175-B: Penn Wharton

More than $175 billion in US tariff collections are at risk of being refunded if the US Supreme Court rules against President Donald Trump’s broad emergency tariffs, Penn Wharton Budget Model economists said, David Lawder reported for Reuters.

Estimates show that a substantial amount may need to be refunded if the court rules against Trump.

Their estimate, produced at Reuters’ request, was derived from a ground-up forecasting model that uses tariff rates by product and country for specific duties imposed by Trump, including those under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), said Lysle Boller, senior economist at the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), a nonpartisan fiscal research group at the University of Pennsylvania.

The US Supreme Court could rule on the legality of the IEEPA-based tariffs as early as Friday.

If they are struck down, importers are expected to seek refunds from US Customs and Border Protection for duties paid over the past year.

Trump has touted the revenue generated by his tariffs, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates at about $300 billion annually over the next decade.

However, the estimates show that a substantial amount may need to be refunded if the court rules against him. A $175 billion refund would exceed the combined fiscal 2025 outlays of the Department of Transportation ($127.6 billion) and the Department of Justice ($44.9 billion).