Ukraine War Making China Rethink Its Plans On Taiwan Invasion

The chief of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) warned Wednesday (Thursday, July 21, 2022, in Manila) that China appears poised to use force in Taiwan, with Russia's experience in Ukraine influencing Beijing's calculations on how, not whether, to invade.

Photo Insert: The US does not believe Beijing is providing military assistance to Russia.

CIA Director Bill Burns, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, played down speculation that Chinese President Xi Jinping may move on Taiwan following a critical Communist Party gathering later this year.

"The risks of that become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get," Burns added. Burns described China's reaction to Russia's five-month-old war in Ukraine as a "strategic failure" for President Vladimir Putin, who had intended to topple the Kyiv government within a week.

"Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it," Burns said.

He said that China is believed to have observed from Ukraine that "you don't achieve quick, decisive victories with underwhelming force."

"I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you've got to amass overwhelming force if you're going to contemplate that in the future," he said.

China has also likely learned that it must "control the information space" and "do everything you can to shore up your economy against the potential for sanctions," he added. Burns, echoing prior US assessments, stated that despite verbal support, the US does not believe Beijing is providing military assistance to Russia.

He stated that China has increased its purchases of Russian energy but is wary of triggering Western penalties.

WEEKLY FEATURE : MVP Group Keeps Lights On During Pandemic