Ukraine War Won't Upset Economy, Balance Of Power In Asia

An Indian analyst says Asia will not be gravely affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine since only Japan, South Korea and Singapore have slapped sanctions on Russia as punishment for its aggression that started on February 24, 2022.

Photo Insert: A great number of democracies are supposedly not bothered about the armed conflict and many of them do not see an apocalypse happening in Europe.

Writing for the Foreign Affairs March-April 2022 issue, Shivshankar Menon, a former diplomat who served as National Security Adviser to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh from 2010 to 2014 and currently Visiting Professor of International Relations at Ashoka University, said a great number of democracies are not bothered about the armed conflict and many of them do not see an apocalypse happening in Europe.

“But Russia’s invasion does not draw a line in the sand between the allies of the free world and its foes. A global Manichaean struggle is not in the offing. Those observers hoping for a conflict of that scope to arise from the rubble of Mariupol and Kharkiv will be disappointed,” he stressed.

“No matter how long the war in Ukraine lasts, how the West isolates Russia, and how the war’s secondary market effects hit Asian economies, the balance of power in Asia is unlikely to be significantly affected. To be sure, the total collapse of the Russian state would have serious ramifications, but that outcome seems unlikely for now. In Asia, the war will not close the gap in military strength between, on the one hand, the United States and China and, on the other, the large number of middle and subregional powers in Asia. The latter will still have to negotiate between the sole superpower and China. Nor does it seem likely that a newly consolidated Western alliance, however invigorated, will find the energy to take an active or meaningful role in security dilemmas in Asia so long as it is preoccupied with containing Russia in Europe,” Menon said.

“Instead of consolidation, the war in Ukraine seems likely to lead to greater fragmentation of the global order. It has reinforced the urge to build strategic autonomy in Europe as European countries begin to take a greater share in their own defense rather than rely to such an extent on the US. It has also reinforced Asia’s sense of its own difference—its focus on stability, trade, and the bottom line that has served Asian countries so well in the last 40 years. The war will likely challenge economies that are already reeling from the pandemic and the retreat from globalization over the last decade. The combined economic and political effects of the war are likely to persuade Asian countries to embrace greater self-reliance, a trend already engendered by the pandemic,” he concluded.

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