Biden's Climate Win May Distort Global Net-Zero Race: Analyst

America’s drive to speed up its energy transition is likely to throw other big carbon emitters off course.

Photo Insert: President Joe Biden signs into law America’s $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act.

A large chunk of America’s $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act that President Joe Biden signed into law on Wednesday will incentivize companies to boost the country’s solar, wind and hydrogen output.

The danger is that for the next few years this will give them far greater control over supply chains that poorer countries depend on before the knock-on benefits of increased investment and production make such technology more available and affordable worldwide, Una Galani reported for Reuters.

Take a big emitter like India. Its goal for 280 gigawatts of solar power by 2030 is credible because current end tariffs of about 2.5 rupees ($0.031) per kilowatt hour make the energy source cheaper than producing power from domestic coal.

Indian companies including Adani Green Energy, US-listed ReNew Energy, and Singapore sovereign fund-backed Greenko have relied on foreign suppliers and market forces to drive down prices thus far.

Washington’s new tax credits and grants are likely to prompt makers of panels, turbines and other such hardware to shift focus read more to the US in expectation of a bumper payday.

The handouts will at least roughly double the internal rate of return shared by solar and wind projects for developers, offtakers, and investors, per a Boston Consulting Group study factoring in the bill’s details as of Aug. 6.

In a world where supply chains for solar and wind parts are already tight, and contracts are often short rather than long-term, it is logical that suppliers stand to benefit too.

A similar reprioritizing of global customers happened during former U.S. President Barack Obama's administration after it introduced wind farm subsidies.

If Indian companies end up having to compete against prices adjusted for US tax credits, the country’s solar tariffs could rise to about 3.5 rupees, one industry executive told Reuters Breakingviews, a point at which the cost of producing power from domestic coal starts looking competitive again.

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