Fewer Than Half of Americans Expect 2026 Midterms to Be “Free and Fair”

Fewer than half of Americans expect the upcoming midterm elections to be “free and fair,” amid a broader decline in confidence in the accuracy of vote counts, according to a new nationwide survey.

Americans express growing uncertainty about whether the 2026 midterm elections will be free and fair, according to a new UC San Diego survey.

The survey, conducted Sept. 1-9 among 5,016 American adults by the University of California, San Diego’s Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections, found that 49% of respondents expected the November elections to be free and fair.

Another 23% said they did not expect them to be, while 28% said they did not know what to expect.

Americans were more confident that ballots, once cast, would be counted accurately, although confidence varied by political affiliation.

The survey found that 63% of Democrats, 58% of Republicans and 49% of independent voters were either “somewhat” or “very” confident that votes would be counted accurately.

That represents a substantial decline from the period immediately after the 2024 election, when 77% of Americans said they were confident that votes nationwide had been counted as intended.

By January 2026, that figure had fallen to 60%, and it stood at 55% in the September survey.

Lauren Prather, a co-director of the Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections, said the findings reflect declining trust but also differences in how voters understand the broader concept of a “free and fair” election.

An accurate vote count is an important component of election confidence, but respondents may also consider other factors.