Jobs Data Show U.S. Economy Is Not In The Pink Of Health

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

A weaker-than-expected July jobs report would have been enough of a shock on its own. (Photo: AgnosticPreachersKid. Wikimedia Commons)

This bit of wisdom—commonly attributed to Mark Twain—is especially relevant as markets reassess their confidence in the health of the U.S. economy, Adam Clark reported for Barron’s Daily.

A weaker-than-expected July jobs report would have been enough of a shock on its own.

But downward revisions to employment figures for the two preceding months have cast even more doubt on previously optimistic assessments of the labor market.

Adding to the turmoil, President Donald Trump’s firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has raised concerns about how employment data may be presented going forward.

The Federal Reserve now finds itself at the center of the response. Traders are betting that Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will set aside worries about tariff-driven inflation and begin cutting interest rates in September.

The CME FedWatch tool shows nearly an 80% chance of a rate cut being priced in.

Still, the Fed’s path is far from clear. Trump may use the recent resignation of Governor Adriana Kugler as an opportunity to appoint a potential successor to Powell.

With Powell’s term set to expire in May, Trump could install a new governor aligned with his push for lower interest rates—someone who might eventually step into the chair’s role.