Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine To Worsen Global Hunger: FAO

Russia’s invasion of one of the world’s leading breadbaskets — Ukraine — is deepening the worst surge in global food prices since the Great Recession, raising the specter that Moscow’s war could spark crisis-level hikes, inflame the scourge of world hunger and spark political turmoil far from the conflict zone, Anthony Faiola and Sammy Westfall reported for the Washington Post.

Photo Insert: Civilians in Ukraine get a momentary respite from the fighting.

As bad as it is — a key wheat future surged 70 percent over the past month — the situation is poised to get worse.

A new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) due out Friday estimates food and feed prices could surge 7 percent to 22 percent above already elevated levels due to the war.

In real terms — with prices adjusted for inflation — costs are approaching, but not yet surpassing, the global food crisis of 2007 and 2008, when droughts, the rise of biofuels, and a barrage of trade protectionism merged into the worst food inflation since the Soviet grain crisis of the 1970s.

In the short run, the FAO says, large grower countries — Australia, Argentina, India, and the United States — could make up for a portion of the grain shortfalls from Ukraine and Russia. But important factors could worsen the problem.

If the war halts planting in the rich, black soils of Ukraine, wheat shortages will worsen in the coming months. The FAO’s preliminary assessment is that, due to the war, 20 percent to 30 percent of wheat, corn, and sunflower seed will either not be planted or go unharvested during Ukraine’s 2022-2023 season.

Critically, Russia is also a major exporter of fertilizer, the price of which has already been soaring. Significant disruptions of Russian exports could see that price jump more — further driving up the cost of food production globally.

To guard their food supplies, countries are turning to trade protectionism — one major factor that sharply worsened the 2007-2008 crisis. Since the Russian invasion, Indonesia has set new limits on palm oil exports to control prices.

Hungary banned all grain exports last week; Serbia on Wednesday said it would ban exports of wheat, corn, flour, and cooking oil. On Thursday, Egypt — a country 80 percent reliant on Russian and Ukrainian wheat — imposed controls on grain exports as the price of subsidized bread has already started to creep up.

Facing a siege of its cities and a war that has seen Ukrainian tractors redeployed to haul off Russian tanks, Kyiv has halted exports of meat, rye, oats, buckwheat, sugar, millet, and salt, and introduced some restrictions on wheat and corn.

Russia, according to Reuters citing the Interfax news agency, may temporarily ban grain exports to a group of ex-Soviet countries, as well as some sugar exports.

WEEKLY FEATURE : MVP Group Keeps Lights On During Pandemic