ASML Can’t Guarantee Profit Growth Amid Global Uncertainty

Tariffs and trade tensions are having contrasting effects on two major chip stocks.

ASML narrowed its 2025 guidance, now forecasting a 15% sales increase to €32.5 billion. I Photo: ASML Facebook

While Nvidia scored a trade victory this week, ASML is facing headwinds.

The Dutch chip equipment manufacturer said it cannot guarantee profit growth in 2026 due to mounting macroeconomic uncertainty, George Glover reported for Barron’s Daily.

ASML reported its second-quarter earnings recently, triggering an early stock selloff. Orders for chip-making machines totaled €5.54 billion ($6.44 billion), beating analysts’ expectations.

However, CEO Christophe Fouquet struck a cautious tone.

“While we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage,” he said in an earnings statement.

Fouquet didn’t specifically mention tariffs but cited “increasing uncertainty driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.”

U.S. tariffs have already made it difficult for European firms to stick to previous profit guidance. President Donald Trump has threatened 30% tariffs on European Union goods beginning August 1, and the EU is preparing retaliatory measures.

The profit warning came just days after Nvidia announced that the U.S. government had approved licenses for it to sell H20 chips to China. Nvidia expects to begin deliveries soon.

ASML narrowed its 2025 guidance, now forecasting a 15% sales increase to €32.5 billion, compared to its previous range of €30 billion to €35 billion.

The updated forecast raises questions about demand from chipmakers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and Intel for ASML’s next-generation lithography machines.